I am a mixed-methods researcher with a PhD (International Relations) from the Australian National University (ANU). My research interests include war outcomes, peacemaking and peacebuilding, rebel groups, and power-sharing governance systems. I have authored various publications for academic and public policy audiences. Please get in touch for collaborations or opportunities with think tanks!

Publications

PhD Dissertation (book project)

Research

Working Papers

Papers Under Research

Peacemaking in a Breaking Global Order

Talking While Fighting: Peace Dialogues on Federalism in Myanmar

Radicalization Pathways and Armed Group Mobilization in Rohingya Refugee Camps

  • Rationalist bargaining approaches to study war termination often utilize a 'Win, Lose or Draw' framework, focusing on decisive outcomes of peace agreements or victories for either conflict party. When applied to civil wars, this approach fails to capture more complex war-ending processes, particularly non-decisive conflict outcomes, which occur more often than political settlements or military solutions. Despite their frequency, non-decisive conflict outcomes are the least studied conflict scenarios, often overlooked in civil war studies. The omission of non-decisive outcomes in civil war bargaining models has theoretical implications, including limiting the rational choice options between conflict actors who seek an off-ramp when settlements or victory cannot be achieved. This article addresses theoretical gaps and makes three contributions to bargaining and war outcomes literature: I)  it conceptualizes non-decisive conflict outcomes with a typology and outlines ways to improve empirical work II) it improves rationalist bargaining approaches for civil wars to capture unique commitment and information challenges to explain why conflict actors refrain from negotiating or committing to military outcomes; and III) it provides theoretical explanations for previously unaccounted for empirical cases of intrastate conflict outcomes.

  • What effect does rebel group splintering have on conflict outcomes? The rise, split, and fall of rebel contenders shape cycles of armed conflict, creating new fronts for violence and challenges for political negotiations. Employing logistic regression and inverse probability weighting (IPW), I analyze 372 intrastate conflict outcomes from 1946 to 2013 and the effects of rebel group splintering. Countering the logic that weakening rebel groups through divisions make them easier to defeat, this study shows that the chances of government military victories over splintered rebels in armed conflict decrease by 11.4 percent. Rebel group victories over governments decline by 9.8 percent when groups have splintered, while the likelihood of non-decisive conflict outcomes increases by 18.9 percent. Why rebel groups splinter has received far more empirical attention than its effects, and this study fills an important gap in the literature linking rebel splintering with the outcomes of war. I theorize that results demonstrate how splintered rebels and their original organizations potentially become less threatening through fragmentation while increasing the costs for governments to hunt down more rebel contenders.

Book Chapter

"Myanmar Under Contested Military Rule." In Myanmar in Crisis: Living with the Pandemic and the Coup, edited by Justine Chambers and Michael R. Dunford, 95-124. Singapore: ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, 2023.  

Analysis & Blogs

“Can the new UN Envoy avoid past mediation failures in Myanmar?” East Asia Forum. May 20, 2024. https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/05/20/can-the-new-un-envoy-avoid-past-mediation-failures-in-myanmar/

“Achieving the Best Outcomes in Myanmar's Civil War.” War on the Rocks. October 19, 2022. https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/achieving-the-best-outcome-in-myanmars-civil-war/.

“Can Myanmar’s civil disobedience movement restore democracy?” East Asia Forum. March 17, 2021. https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/03/17/can-myanmars-civil-disobedience-movement-restore-democracy/. 

“Policy Dialogues for Peace in Myanmar.” InAsia. January 30, 2019. https://asiafoundation.org/2019/01/30/policy-dialogues-for-peace-in-myanmar/

“Myanmar pushes ASEAN to the brink.” The Interpreter by The Lowy Institute. June, 10, 2021. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/myanmar-pushes-asean-brink

Think Tank/INGO/UN Research

"Lower Myanmar: urban guerrillas and new patterns of resistance." International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). May 31, 2023. https://myanmar.iiss.org/analysis/lower

“Being Muslim in Myanmar.” The Asia Foundation (for the British Embassy in Burma). November 2018. (co-author)  

“Conflict in Kachin: The Long War.” The Asia Foundation (for the British Embassy in Burma). October 2018. (co-author)  

“As the Smoke Clears: New Conflict Dynamics and Aid Implications in Rakhine State.” The Asia Foundation (for the British Embassy in Burma). October 2018. (co-author)  

“The Contested Areas of Myanmar: Subnational Conflict, Aid and Development.” The Asia Foundation. October 2017.  https://asiafoundation.org/publication/contested-areas-myanmar-subnational-conflict-aid-development/  (co-author)

“Myanmar Conflict Analysis.” The Asia Foundation (for the World Bank). 2016. (co-author)

“Implementing the Women, Peace & Security Agenda and Reducing Armed Violence.” A submission for the high-level review of UNSCR 1325 by the Global Alliance on Armed Violence (GAAV) Gender Working Group. 2015. (co-author)  

“Community-based approaches to Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR): Case studies from Indonesia, Mozambique and Colombia.” Practice Notes by The Global Alliance on Armed Violence Working Group on DDR. 2015. (editor)   

“Women’s Perspectives of Peace & Security in Asia.” United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) N-Peace Network Publications Vol 1, 2012. https://www.undp.org/asia-pacific/publications/womens-perspectives-peace-and-security-vol-1 (co-author)   

“Women’s Perspectives of Peace & Security in Asia.” United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) N-Peace Network Publications Vol 2, 2013. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://n-peace.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Women%E2%80%99s-Perspectives-of-Peace-and-Security-Vol.-2.pdf (co-author)   

“Security and Justice from a District Perspective: Rukum, Nepal.” International Alert. 2010.   https://www.international-alert.org/publications/security-and-justice-district-perspective/ (co-author)

Curricula  

“Federalism and Multi-Order Governance: International Case Studies and Comparative Analysis.” The Asia Foundation. October 2021. (co-author)

“Political, Administrative, and Fiscal Aspects of Federalism: Myanmar’s Transition to Multi-order Governance.” (Training Curriculum and Guidance Note). The Asia Foundation. October 2020. (co-author)

“Fiscal Federalism in Myanmar: Training Curriculum.” The Asia Foundation. October 2018. https://asiafoundation.org/where-we-work/myanmar/ (co-author)

“How to Develop a National Report on Armed Violence and Insecurity.” Training Toolkit by the Global Alliance on Armed Violence Working Group on Violence Monitoring. 2014. (co-author)