I am a mixed-methods researcher with a PhD (International Relations) from the Australian National University (ANU). My research interests include war outcomes, peacemaking and peacebuilding, rebel groups, and power-sharing governance systems. I have authored various publications for academic and public policy audiences. Please get in touch for collaborations or opportunities with think tanks!

Publications

PhD Dissertation (book project)

Research

Doctoral Dissertation, The Australian National University, May 2024. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/317367

Working Papers

Papers Under Research

Peacemaking in a Breaking Global Order

Talking While Fighting: Peace Dialogues on Federalism in Myanmar

Radicalization Pathways and Armed Group Mobilization in Rohingya Refugee Camps

Non-decisive outcomes of conflict—instances where violence ends without a clear victory or formal settlement—are the most frequent and yet understudied scenarios in civil wars. The study of war termination and rationalist bargaining approaches typically relies on a 'Win, Lose, or Draw' framework. Yet this approach fails to capture the more complex processes of conflict ending without the clear symbols of a war’s termination. This omission limits the theoretical understanding of the bargaining process to reach non-decisive outcomes and narrows the perceived range of rational options available to conflict actors, particularly those seeking an off-ramp when neither victory nor a negotiated settlement is attainable. Addressing theoretical and empirical gaps, this article makes four contributions to bargaining and civil war outcomes literature: I) it conceptualizes non-decisive conflict outcomes with a typology; II) it refines rationalist bargaining approaches by accounting for unique commitment challenges in civil wars that explain why actors may avoid negotiations and fighting; III) it illustrates the variation of non-deceive outcomes through a case study on Myanmar’s armed conflicts; and IV) it advances theoretical explanations for previously overlooked empirical cases of intrastate conflict outcomes—covering long wars, mutually beneficial stalemates, and the transformation of conflict actors—helping scholars and policymakers more effectively recognize and study these alternative endpoints.
What effect does rebel group splintering have on conflict outcomes? The rise, split, and fall of rebel contenders shape cycles of armed conflict, creating new fronts for violence and challenges for political negotiations. Employing logistic regression and inverse probability weighting (IPW), I analyze 372 intrastate conflict outcomes from 1946 to 2013 and the effects of rebel group splintering. Countering the logic that weakening rebel groups through divisions make them easier to defeat, this study shows that the chances of government military victories over splintered rebels in armed conflict decrease by 11.4 percent. Rebel group victories over governments decline by 9.8 percent when groups have splintered, while the likelihood of non-decisive conflict outcomes increases by 18.9 percent. Why rebel groups splinter has received far more empirical attention than its effects, and this study fills an important gap in the literature linking rebel splintering with the outcomes of war. I theorize that results demonstrate how splintered rebels and their original organizations potentially become less threatening through fragmentation while increasing the costs for governments to hunt down more rebel contenders.

Book Chapter

"Myanmar Under Contested Military Rule." In Myanmar in Crisis: Living with the Pandemic and the Coup, edited by Justine Chambers and Michael R. Dunford, 95-124. Singapore: ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, 2023.

Analysis & Blogs

“Can the new UN Envoy avoid past mediation failures in Myanmar?” East Asia Forum. May 20, 2024. https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/05/20/can-the-new-un-envoy-avoid-past-mediation-failures-in-myanmar/

“Achieving the Best Outcomes in Myanmar's Civil War.” War on the Rocks. October 19, 2022. https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/achieving-the-best-outcome-in-myanmars-civil-war/.

“Can Myanmar’s civil disobedience movement restore democracy?” East Asia Forum. March 17, 2021. https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/03/17/can-myanmars-civil-disobedience-movement-restore-democracy/.

“Policy Dialogues for Peace in Myanmar.” InAsia. January 30, 2019. https://asiafoundation.org/2019/01/30/policy-dialogues-for-peace-in-myanmar/

“Myanmar pushes ASEAN to the brink.” The Interpreter by The Lowy Institute. June, 10, 2021. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/myanmar-pushes-asean-brink

Think Tank/INGO/UN Research

"Lower Myanmar: urban guerrillas and new patterns of resistance." International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). May 31, 2023. https://myanmar.iiss.org/analysis/lower

“Being Muslim in Myanmar.” The Asia Foundation (for the British Embassy in Burma). November 2018. (co-author)

“Conflict in Kachin: The Long War.” The Asia Foundation (for the British Embassy in Burma). October 2018. (co-author)

“As the Smoke Clears: New Conflict Dynamics and Aid Implications in Rakhine State.” The Asia Foundation (for the British Embassy in Burma). October 2018. (co-author)

“The Contested Areas of Myanmar: Subnational Conflict, Aid and Development.” The Asia Foundation. October 2017. https://asiafoundation.org/publication/contested-areas-myanmar-subnational-conflict-aid-development/ (co-author)

“Myanmar Conflict Analysis.” The Asia Foundation (for the World Bank). 2016. (co-author)

“Implementing the Women, Peace & Security Agenda and Reducing Armed Violence.” A submission for the high-level review of UNSCR 1325 by the Global Alliance on Armed Violence (GAAV) Gender Working Group. 2015. (co-author)

“Community-based approaches to Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR): Case studies from Indonesia, Mozambique and Colombia.” Practice Notes by The Global Alliance on Armed Violence Working Group on DDR. 2015. (editor)

“Women’s Perspectives of Peace & Security in Asia.” United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) N-Peace Network Publications Vol 1, 2012. https://www.undp.org/asia-pacific/publications/womens-perspectives-peace-and-security-vol-1 (co-author)

“Women’s Perspectives of Peace & Security in Asia.” United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) N-Peace Network Publications Vol 2, 2013. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://n-peace.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Women%E2%80%99s-Perspectives-of-Peace-and-Security-Vol.-2.pdf (co-author)

“Security and Justice from a District Perspective: Rukum, Nepal.” International Alert. 2010. https://www.international-alert.org/publications/security-and-justice-district-perspective/ (co-author)

Curricula

“Federalism and Multi-Order Governance: International Case Studies and Comparative Analysis.” The Asia Foundation. October 2021. (co-author)

“Political, Administrative, and Fiscal Aspects of Federalism: Myanmar’s Transition to Multi-order Governance.” (Training Curriculum and Guidance Note). The Asia Foundation. October 2020. (co-author)

“Fiscal Federalism in Myanmar: Training Curriculum.” The Asia Foundation. October 2018. https://asiafoundation.org/where-we-work/myanmar/ (co-author)

“How to Develop a National Report on Armed Violence and Insecurity.” Training Toolkit by the Global Alliance on Armed Violence Working Group on Violence Monitoring. 2014. (co-author)